http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20040701faessay83405-p0/george-j-gilboy/the-myth-behind-china-s-miracle.html

Update: Now behind a paywall

From the page:

“Washington need not worry about China’s economic boom, much less respond with protectionism. Although China controls more of the world’s exports than ever before, its high-return high-tech industries are dominated by foreign companies. And Chinese firms will not displace them any time soon: Beijing’s one-party politics have bred a timid business culture that prevents domestic firms from developing key technologies and keeps them dependent on the West.”

Update 2022: This prediction didn’t turn out so well now did it?